When we think about Latin American dictatorships, the first countries that come to mind are — rightly so — Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. But there are growing signs that we may soon have to add a much bigger country, Mexico, to a subcategory of non-democracies.
Leftist populist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who leaves office on Oct. 1, has announced plans to make constitutional changes that would leave his protégé, President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, with almost absolute powers.
That would not only turn Mexico into an elected autocracy, but threaten to disrupt America’s trade with its biggest commercial partner in the world, and increase political strife and illegal migration. Last year, Mexico became the top U.S. trade partner, surpassing China for the first time in 20 years.
Lopez Obrador’s proposed constitutional changes would change the way in which judges are elected and eliminate several autonomous government agencies. They are very likely to pass, and have already sparked a rare public confrontation with the Biden Administration.
U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar, who until now had gone out of his way to avoid criticizing the Mexican government, said on Aug. 22 that Lopez Obrador’s planned judicial reform poses a “risk” to Mexico’s democracy, and “threatens the historic commercial relationship” between Mexico and the United States.
Under Lopez Obrador’s judicial reform, which is supported by Sheinbaum, Mexico would start electing its judges and Supreme Court justices by popular vote. That would allow the ruling party to use its huge electoral machinery to pack the courts with loyalist judges, and would in effect leave the government in full control of the executive, legislative and judicial powers.
If these reforms are implemented, the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement will be in serious trouble, U.S. and Canadian trade experts say. The three-decade-old treaty is coming up for a new renegotiation in 2026, and neither the United States nor Canada are likely to accept renewing it without an independent Mexican court system.
A day before Salazar’s statement, investment bank Morgan Stanley downgraded its Mexican stocks appraisal, in effect telling its clients to sell Mexican shares, in part because of Lopez Obrador’s planned judicial reform.
The Mexican president reacted angrily to Salazar’s remarks, calling the U.S. envoy’s statements “improper” and an intervention in Mexico’s internal affairs. On Tuesday, he declared a “pause” in Mexico’s ties with the U.S. and Canadian ambassadors, although he did not extend it to their respective governments.
Sheinbaum said that neither investments in Mexico nor the country’s democracy are in any danger by the planned reforms.
I have serious doubts about that. The proposed legal changes are already on shaky ground because the government has twisted the law to get a questionable two-thirds majority in Congress it needs to change the Constitution.
Using a dubious interpretation of the law, Mexico’s government-controlled National Electoral Institute awarded the ruling party and its allies 73% of the seats in the lower house of Congress, despite the fact that they only won 54% of the vote in the June 2 elections.
In addition, Mexico has a long history of elected authoritarian governments, which would make Sheinbaum’s near absolute powers hardly a novelty. An all-powerful party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, ruled Mexico for about 70 years in the 20th century, before the country’s transition to democracy in 2000.
Nearly 30 years ago, when I covered Mexico as a correspondent for The Miami Herald, I wrote a book on Mexico titled “Bordering on Chaos,” in which I portrayed the country as a nation grappling with record homicide rates, besieged by drug trafficking, plagued by corruption and dominated by an almighty ruling party.
Three decades later, after a democratic transition that in part thanks to closer ties with the United State helped modernize Mexico, the country seems to be going back to where it was then. That’s very bad for Mexico, and will be bad for the United States.
Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show on Sundays at 9 pm E.T. on CNN en Español. Blog: andresoppenheimer.com
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Publish date : 2024-08-28 05:41:00
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Author : theamericannews
Publish date : 2024-08-28 23:14:13
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