Source link : https://las-vegas-news.com/el-nino-gains-momentum-southern-california-prepares-for-wetter-winters-and-new-risks/
From Neutral to Niño: Decoding the Latest Forecast (Image Credits: Upload.wikimedia.org)
Southern California – The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center issued its latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion on April 9, 2026, highlighting a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July.[1][2] This shift from current neutral conditions carries significant implications for the region’s weather patterns later this year. Residents and officials now monitor subsurface ocean temperatures and wind anomalies closely, as these factors could tip the scales toward a stronger event.
From Neutral to Niño: Decoding the Latest Forecast
ENSO-neutral conditions currently dominate the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures near average in key Niño regions. The Niño-3.4 index stood at -0.2°C in the most recent weekly update, while subsurface waters show increasing warmth across much of the ocean basin.[1] Westerly wind anomalies appeared over the western Pacific, a subtle sign of potential change.
Forecasters favor neutral conditions through April-June at 80% probability. However, models like the North American Multi-Model Ensemble point to El Niño taking hold soon after, with odds rising to 62% by June-August and holding steady into year-end.[2] Strength remains uncertain, though nearly equal chances exist for moderate, strong, or very strong El Niño during November 2026-January 2027 – about 25% apiece for the latter two…
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Author : Matthias Binder
Publish date : 2026-04-29 19:25:00
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